NWS Area Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS61 KRLX 260052
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
752 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area tonight, but is shunted back
by a wave passing to the south overnight into Monday. The high
builds back in Monday night. Next system Wednesday / Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 750 PM Sunday...Decided to pull back PoP for several more
hours across SW Virginia. Uncertain at this time whether or not
any precip will be able to spread as far north as our CWA with
the dry air in place. For now, have sustained chance PoP across
our far Southeastern Zones early tomorrow morning and pulled out
any mention of rain before noon.

As of 420 PM Sunday...Just made some minor changes to sky cover
based on current visible imagery and observations. Will be
nearly overcast cirrostratus for next several hours across the
region.

As of 130 PM Sunday...

The flood watch, curtailed to 1 PM today earlier, was allowed
to expire, as the rain is gone, and the threat for new flooding,
other than on the Ohio River, is not expected.

High pressure builds toward the area tonight, with much drier
air. Upper level flow remaining west to southwest, in the wake
of the short wave trough driving a cold front through the area
this afternoon, and ahead of another short wave approaching
from the west, will allow a surface wave to get close enough
overnight into Monday, to bring clouds, mostly mid and high,
into the area, along with the chance for light rain far
southeast portions of the area.

That wave exits Monday afternoon, allowing the high to build
back into the area, with increasing sunshine from the west.

Used MOS and a near term guidance blend, along with previous,
for temperatures and dew points. This shrinks the diurnal range
a little, on account of the cloud cover associated with the
wave passing south of the area early Monday. Dew points for
Monday afternoon were lowered from the previous forecast, in
the drier air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

High pressure departs off the mid Atlantic coast ahead of the
next developing system over the TX/OK Panhandles. The brief
drying out period ends with the influx of moisture in from the
southwest late Tuesday night. Temperatures remain well above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Models and ensembles keeping the heaviest axis of precipitation
well to the south of the Ohio Valley as deepening low pressure
tracks east northeastward into the region. This will be a
relatively fast moving system that will still bring on and off
rain for an extended period. Not HWO worthy yet, but with a
hydrologic landscape that needs an extended break from the rain,
this system will still need to be watched closely, especially if
the track comes further north. Otherwise, system will exit
quickly with a transitioning upper low to the coast, and
wrap around moisture on the backside in northwest flow. System
is Pacific in nature, so snow should not be a factor except as
the moisture exits and POPs wane Friday night in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 PM Sunday...

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for
everywhere but BKW and EKN. Could see some weak upslope flow
cause MVFR stratus across the mountains that should lift to VFR
by Monday morning. Weak low pressure passes to our SE Monday,
but with dry air and high pressure building overhead, expecting
any showers to remain well to our south.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR stratocu may vary this
afternoon, and again late overnight into Monday morning. Some
valley fog could develop tonight due to very wet ground, but
left out of TAFs with low dew points moving into the area.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in dense fog Tuesday morning, and in rain Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion