Our historic dry period has come to an end, as a cold front and the remnants of Hurricane Nate will interact in our region, making rain a likely feature for our region through midday Monday.
- Total rainfall: 1.5″-2.5″ of rainfall accumulation expected
- Timing: Sunday through midday Monday – heaviest rain Sunday night
- Flash flood threat: Little to none – best threat west
The remnants of Hurricane Nate have battered the Gulf Coast and is now making its way up the southern US toward our region. Nate will curve to the northeast as it moves north today, due to a frontal boundary that lies near the Ohio River.
That cold front will stall a bit over the Ohio River Sunday. The forcing mechanism of Nate with that cold front will produce the heaviest rainfall along the front, particularly in eastern Kentucky, where local rainfall amounts of 4″ are not out of the question. Farther east, the actual remnants of Nate will be the heaviest rainfall maker for our region.
Generally light to steady rainfall is expected for our area during the daytime Sunday. The heaviest rainfall will occur Sunday night into early Monday morning before sunrise, as the heaviest part of Nate’s remnants land in our region. Rain will then begin to decrease during the mid-morning hours of Monday, and the rain should be about wrapped up by lunchtime Monday.
In total, 1.5″-2.5″ of rainfall is expected in our region. The best chance of seeing rainfall totals closer to that 2.5″ range will be south and west closer to the stalled cold front over the Ohio River. Since the majority of our region has seen little to no rainfall for the past three weeks, flash flood guidance values are very high in our region. In addition, the rainfall that we are receiving will, for the most part, fall in a steady fashion instead of as a downpour. The 1.5″-2.5″ expected totals will fall over a 36-hour period instead of a 2 or 3 hour period.
With that being said, flash flooding is not likely as a result of this storm, though some locally high water due to poor drainage and/or the typical trouble spots are not out of the question.
The remnants of Nate will interact with a cold front, making rain a common feature for our region Sunday and Monday.
Rainfall will be likely from Nate in our region through midday Monday. Some of that rain could be heavy at times.