Summer-like conditions will return this weekend in central West Virginia. In addition to the warm temperatures, our region is going to remain dry for the next few days, as an upper level ridge dominates our region. However, as we roll into next week, big changes will be taking place!
A large upper level ridge will keep temperatures more like summer, but that ridge will break down next week (300mb winds and speed shown).
High temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday will approach 80 degrees in central West Virginia.
As we roll into next week, an upper level trough that is currently over the Pacific Northwest will advance across the central portion of the US and make its way into our region. At near the same time period, an area of low pressure out of the Gulf of Mexico is expected to move its way up the Mississippi River Valley and into our region. This interaction could cause some heavy rainfall to occur over central West Virginia. The heaviest rainfall from this storm interaction appears to be well south of our region, where preliminary forecast totals of 2-3″ of rainfall are expected across portions of Tennessee and North Carolina. But at least at this point, a general 1-2″ of rainfall looks certainly attainable in our neck of the woods. As dry as it has been, that should still not cause flooding issues, but it will be something to keep an eye on in the coming days.
A upper level trough will interact with an area of low pressure next week in our region.
A surface low pressure will interact with an upper level trough in our neck of the woods, creating the threat for some significant rainfall.
West Virginia could see some heavy rainfall Tuesday. This computer model indicates a 6 hour rainfall total of around 1″ in our area Tuesday morning, with heavier totals shown across the highest peaks of the Appalachians in North Carolina.
In addition to the potential for some heavy rainfall, temperatures will plummet in our region next week. Computer models are indicating high temperatures may not get out of the 40s in the lowlands by this upcoming Wednesday, due to a stiff west-northwesterly wind flow. But as the computer model suggests in the image below, warmer tempratures will usher in from the west as we work our way into next weekend. So, though the colder weather may blow in as a surprise, it does not appear to be here to stay at this point.
As for snow chances? I’m not seeing much of a chance for snow even in the higher elevations next week right now.
Computer models next week are indicating high temperatures only in the upper 40s to around 50 for our area – that means high temperatures in the mountains may not get out of the 30s (Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday shown).